Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
What’s in your wallet?
70 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Ed Fallon is putting the heat on geriatric Leonard Boswell to debate him. Boswell has never been a great debater and, sitting on a lead in the polls, is trying to run out the clock between now and June 3 and turning down offers to debate. To be honest, there is such nonexistent buzz about this primary even here in central Iowa that I can’t say with certainty that Boswell will win. If turnout is as anemic as I suspect it will be and Boswell forces stay home, Fallon’s true believers could overwhelm him.
When Iowa does its decennial duty and forfeits one of its Congressional districts to the Sun Belt in 2012, my money is on IA-03 and IA-04 merging together to become one. Boswell will be retired soon and I’d just as soon have an incumbent Dem to face off against Tom Latham. I’m skeptical as to whether Ed Fallon can be that guy and am currently leaning towards Boswell, but I hope Boswell sees us through until the 2012 election if he’s gonna continue to contest elections and defer retirement in 2008.
Every damn Repub House district. With money and good candidate recruitment there isn’t a Repub held district we can’t be competitive in – well except for the 11 where filing has closed and we don’t have a candidate.
It’s upcoming and tightening up. I think that Merkley seems like the better chance to pick up the seat, just because of his successful record in the Oregon House, but I want to read up on it this week.
Seeing as we just won Mississippi 1st with an 8 point margin
I’m curious to see how we do in other races in the South, especially where we’ve got strong Democratic candidates
Al-05 with Congressman Bud Cramer retiring, I’m thinking we might still have a shot holding this seat with State Senator Parker Griffith
Al-02 Mayor Bobby Bright is looking like the best candidate to take this Republican Seat
La-04 Paul Carmouche, the DA of Shreveport, has 3 decades worth of experience. I’m hopping this will be another win for us
NJ-5 because Garrett is so extreme and Dennis Shulman is an interesting story. Plus it’s one district over.
NY-25 because it looks like the Republicans will actually surrender one of their seats with no more than a perfunctory challenge. inbelievable.
NY-13 because it’s a train wreck unfolding before our eyes. Vito has no money, can’t fund raise, the NRCC and Boehner are inept at pushing him out (ha ha). The scandals. The tabloids. And more.
IL-18 because Aaron Schock is a jerky kid and I’d love to see him crushed. Plus the name Colleen Callahan is intriguing.
CO-2 The battle between Jared Polis, the rich guy who built up the e-card company and Joan Fitz-Gerald. Did a hyphenated combo actually wind up like a single word name? What’s the story? Polis was built up in Crashing the Gates and yet Fitz-Gerald seems like the establishment candidate. It’s a safe seat so …
TN-9, NJ-1, IA-3, NJ Senate. All cases of crumby conservative types. The nerve of that a**hole Rob Andrews stuffing his wife down the voters via the Norcross Machine and then acting like he’s for change? As Laura Petrie would say but with a different meaning “Oh Rob!” Glad to see a real Democrat winning in TN-9. Stop that stupid identity politics, Steve. Represent the district with votes, ideas, and passion and not just silly skin color.
IL-11
IL-15 Just a silly thought but the Republican has barely $106 K and it’s R+6. Could we steal a cheap win this year like Boyda or Shea-Porter?
PA-5 Cause of the diaries.
WA-8 Cause of Darcy’s plan.
FL-10, PA-15 Used to live there. We can win. Will we?
IA-5 Not a shot in the world but a few newspaper articles have convinced me that Steve King is a bully, a moron, and a lot more, or is it a lot less.
It’s not a joke. San Francisco voters are gathering signatures to place on the November ballot an initiative that would rename the San Francisco sewer system after George W. Bush, and the name change would take effect on the January 2009 day he leaves office, to reward him for his accomplishments – the “George W. Bush Sewage Plant”. If you know friends in San Francisco, encourage them to sign the petitions to get this on the ballot. Contact info to sign the petitions is on their web site.
I’m more interested in hearing about the potential House gains in Louisiana. I know that we just had a special election, and that there doesn’t seem to be any seats in play in that state, but I have some observations.
LA-02: William Jefferson’s bribery charges still pending, can he survive a primary challenge? I’m hoping Karen Carter wins, actually. She’d be a much better Congresswoman than the scandal-plagued Jefferson.
LA-03: Charlie Melancon only won with 55% of the vote in 2006. He may be vulnerable.
LA-06: Don Cazayoux is in a much better position to be reelected, given that he was elected only this month. Still, this was a GOP seat for 30 years, who knows what could happen?
LA-07: This may be solidly Republican, but as MS-01 showed us on Tuesday, solid-GOP these days is a pipe-dream. But unless Chris John decides to make a comeback I don’t see Charles W. Boustany Jr. losing this seat.
Suggest adding NJ-02 (LoBiondo), OH-3 (Turner), and WA-05 (McMorris-Rogers) to the SSP Races to Watch list. Also suggest moving CA-50 (Bilbray) from “Races to Watch” to “Likely R”. Of the 4 “also ran” CA races (CA-26, CA-45, CA-46, and CA-50), I think CA-50 is the first one we will win, given no scandal emerges with Rohrabacher, etc. Our candidate last election in CA-50 (Busby) was not the best, therefore, CA-50 may present low hanging fruit this time.
Like my final college exam for the semester. I can’t wait to get the tension cut out of the air. It’ll be nice to finally be over.
I haven’t filled out my ballot yet (guess when I finished my taxes?), and finally noticed today that the Oregonian has endorsed one of Wu’s challengers:
U.S. House of Representatives 1st Congressional District Democrat Will Hobbs, an articulate and razor-sharp manager at Intel, should be nominated in place of ineffective incumbent David Wu.
Can anyone help me understand? I haven’t read anything in the Oregonian since I moved here last year to back up their use of the word ‘ineffective’. Having said that, DeFazio and Blumenauer and Wyden appear to set a pretty high standard around here…
Yesterday at the Maryland State Teachers Association convention two Dem. candidates spoke. Both are, I believe trying to take seats previously held by R’s. But I don’t really know the record of either one. Does anyone know more? Should we be supporting them? Put on ActBlue?
I hear Jesse Ventura is seriously considering a third party bid for Senate in his home state of Minnesota. Would he split the vote? For whom? Franken or Coleman?
he was able to win in 98 against two stiffs and given our very open low dollar public financing system for state elections, he was able to parlay his celebrity into victory.
there is no public financing and no limits for a senate race and franken and coleman will raise and spend $10M each as well as party help. ventura left with a very low approval rating and is now considered a total joke by just about everyone. he won’t win and he probably won’t even get the independence party nomination.
but he may sell some of his books:)
but he is an incumbent with $10M. In ’98, he was dull as he spouted the party line, in ’08, he, like all the rats on that sinking ship they call the GOP, is distancing himself from bush.
This from SurveyUSA’s website. I can’t wait to see the new Oregon Senate primary numbers. The NC general election numbers for Pres, Senate, and Gov should be interesting as well.
Tuesday is primary day in Kentucky and Oregon; SurveyUSA will have fresh numbers out on Monday in the Kentucky Democratic primaries for President and US Senate, and in Oregon’s presidential and gubernatorial primaries, as well as in Oregon’s 5th congressional district races and the Portland mayoral primary.
Also on tap for next week:
Missouri’s Republican primary for governor and a peek at November.
Massachusetts’ US Senate primaries.
North Carolina November matchups for President, Governor, and US Senate.
A look ahead to November in Missouri’s 6th Congressional District.
June 3 Mayoral contest updates in Fresno and San Diego
Approval ratings and head to head November matchups in multiple states … including, for the first time, a look at how some potential November tickets do against one another.
But, he hadn’t honed his political skills. He is a much slicker politician now than he was then.
Ed Fallon is putting the heat on geriatric Leonard Boswell to debate him. Boswell has never been a great debater and, sitting on a lead in the polls, is trying to run out the clock between now and June 3 and turning down offers to debate. To be honest, there is such nonexistent buzz about this primary even here in central Iowa that I can’t say with certainty that Boswell will win. If turnout is as anemic as I suspect it will be and Boswell forces stay home, Fallon’s true believers could overwhelm him.
When Iowa does its decennial duty and forfeits one of its Congressional districts to the Sun Belt in 2012, my money is on IA-03 and IA-04 merging together to become one. Boswell will be retired soon and I’d just as soon have an incumbent Dem to face off against Tom Latham. I’m skeptical as to whether Ed Fallon can be that guy and am currently leaning towards Boswell, but I hope Boswell sees us through until the 2012 election if he’s gonna continue to contest elections and defer retirement in 2008.
Every damn Repub House district. With money and good candidate recruitment there isn’t a Repub held district we can’t be competitive in – well except for the 11 where filing has closed and we don’t have a candidate.
It’s upcoming and tightening up. I think that Merkley seems like the better chance to pick up the seat, just because of his successful record in the Oregon House, but I want to read up on it this week.
Seeing as we just won Mississippi 1st with an 8 point margin
I’m curious to see how we do in other races in the South, especially where we’ve got strong Democratic candidates
Al-05 with Congressman Bud Cramer retiring, I’m thinking we might still have a shot holding this seat with State Senator Parker Griffith
Al-02 Mayor Bobby Bright is looking like the best candidate to take this Republican Seat
La-04 Paul Carmouche, the DA of Shreveport, has 3 decades worth of experience. I’m hopping this will be another win for us
NJ-5 because Garrett is so extreme and Dennis Shulman is an interesting story. Plus it’s one district over.
NY-25 because it looks like the Republicans will actually surrender one of their seats with no more than a perfunctory challenge. inbelievable.
NY-13 because it’s a train wreck unfolding before our eyes. Vito has no money, can’t fund raise, the NRCC and Boehner are inept at pushing him out (ha ha). The scandals. The tabloids. And more.
IL-18 because Aaron Schock is a jerky kid and I’d love to see him crushed. Plus the name Colleen Callahan is intriguing.
CO-2 The battle between Jared Polis, the rich guy who built up the e-card company and Joan Fitz-Gerald. Did a hyphenated combo actually wind up like a single word name? What’s the story? Polis was built up in Crashing the Gates and yet Fitz-Gerald seems like the establishment candidate. It’s a safe seat so …
TN-9, NJ-1, IA-3, NJ Senate. All cases of crumby conservative types. The nerve of that a**hole Rob Andrews stuffing his wife down the voters via the Norcross Machine and then acting like he’s for change? As Laura Petrie would say but with a different meaning “Oh Rob!” Glad to see a real Democrat winning in TN-9. Stop that stupid identity politics, Steve. Represent the district with votes, ideas, and passion and not just silly skin color.
IL-11
IL-15 Just a silly thought but the Republican has barely $106 K and it’s R+6. Could we steal a cheap win this year like Boyda or Shea-Porter?
PA-5 Cause of the diaries.
WA-8 Cause of Darcy’s plan.
FL-10, PA-15 Used to live there. We can win. Will we?
IA-5 Not a shot in the world but a few newspaper articles have convinced me that Steve King is a bully, a moron, and a lot more, or is it a lot less.
It’s not a joke. San Francisco voters are gathering signatures to place on the November ballot an initiative that would rename the San Francisco sewer system after George W. Bush, and the name change would take effect on the January 2009 day he leaves office, to reward him for his accomplishments – the “George W. Bush Sewage Plant”. If you know friends in San Francisco, encourage them to sign the petitions to get this on the ballot. Contact info to sign the petitions is on their web site.
See http://www.presidentialmemorial.wordpress.com
I’m more interested in hearing about the potential House gains in Louisiana. I know that we just had a special election, and that there doesn’t seem to be any seats in play in that state, but I have some observations.
LA-02: William Jefferson’s bribery charges still pending, can he survive a primary challenge? I’m hoping Karen Carter wins, actually. She’d be a much better Congresswoman than the scandal-plagued Jefferson.
LA-03: Charlie Melancon only won with 55% of the vote in 2006. He may be vulnerable.
LA-06: Don Cazayoux is in a much better position to be reelected, given that he was elected only this month. Still, this was a GOP seat for 30 years, who knows what could happen?
LA-07: This may be solidly Republican, but as MS-01 showed us on Tuesday, solid-GOP these days is a pipe-dream. But unless Chris John decides to make a comeback I don’t see Charles W. Boustany Jr. losing this seat.
Suggest adding NJ-02 (LoBiondo), OH-3 (Turner), and WA-05 (McMorris-Rogers) to the SSP Races to Watch list. Also suggest moving CA-50 (Bilbray) from “Races to Watch” to “Likely R”. Of the 4 “also ran” CA races (CA-26, CA-45, CA-46, and CA-50), I think CA-50 is the first one we will win, given no scandal emerges with Rohrabacher, etc. Our candidate last election in CA-50 (Busby) was not the best, therefore, CA-50 may present low hanging fruit this time.
Like my final college exam for the semester. I can’t wait to get the tension cut out of the air. It’ll be nice to finally be over.
I haven’t filled out my ballot yet (guess when I finished my taxes?), and finally noticed today that the Oregonian has endorsed one of Wu’s challengers:
http://blog.oregonlive.com/ore…
Can anyone help me understand? I haven’t read anything in the Oregonian since I moved here last year to back up their use of the word ‘ineffective’. Having said that, DeFazio and Blumenauer and Wyden appear to set a pretty high standard around here…
Yesterday at the Maryland State Teachers Association convention two Dem. candidates spoke. Both are, I believe trying to take seats previously held by R’s. But I don’t really know the record of either one. Does anyone know more? Should we be supporting them? Put on ActBlue?
I hear Jesse Ventura is seriously considering a third party bid for Senate in his home state of Minnesota. Would he split the vote? For whom? Franken or Coleman?
he was able to win in 98 against two stiffs and given our very open low dollar public financing system for state elections, he was able to parlay his celebrity into victory.
there is no public financing and no limits for a senate race and franken and coleman will raise and spend $10M each as well as party help. ventura left with a very low approval rating and is now considered a total joke by just about everyone. he won’t win and he probably won’t even get the independence party nomination.
but he may sell some of his books:)
but he is an incumbent with $10M. In ’98, he was dull as he spouted the party line, in ’08, he, like all the rats on that sinking ship they call the GOP, is distancing himself from bush.
This from SurveyUSA’s website. I can’t wait to see the new Oregon Senate primary numbers. The NC general election numbers for Pres, Senate, and Gov should be interesting as well.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index…
Tuesday is primary day in Kentucky and Oregon; SurveyUSA will have fresh numbers out on Monday in the Kentucky Democratic primaries for President and US Senate, and in Oregon’s presidential and gubernatorial primaries, as well as in Oregon’s 5th congressional district races and the Portland mayoral primary.
Also on tap for next week:
Missouri’s Republican primary for governor and a peek at November.
Massachusetts’ US Senate primaries.
North Carolina November matchups for President, Governor, and US Senate.
A look ahead to November in Missouri’s 6th Congressional District.
June 3 Mayoral contest updates in Fresno and San Diego
Approval ratings and head to head November matchups in multiple states … including, for the first time, a look at how some potential November tickets do against one another.
But, he hadn’t honed his political skills. He is a much slicker politician now than he was then.